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Future projection of extreme precipitation and temperature indices in Central Asia using CORDEX-CORE

Praveen Rai1, Freddy Bangelesa1Daniel Abel1, Katrin Ziegler1, Jingshui Huang2, Timo Schaffhauser2, Markus Disse2, and Heiko Paeth1

1Institute of Geography and Geology , Institute of Geography and Geology, University of Wuerzburg, Germany (praveen-kumar.rai@uni-wuerzburg.de)

2Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Technical University of Munich, Germany

Abstract 

Our study aims to investigate the development of extreme climate indices based on temperature and precipitation over Central Asia using multiple RCMs from CORDEX-CORE. The study area is defined by an overlapping area of the Central Asian (CAS) and the East Asian (EAS) CORDEX domains to increase the number of ensemble members from 4 to 10. This enables us to compare the biases and projections among the ensembles of the different domains as well. We focus on three-time slices of the present (1981-2005), the mid- (2031-2065), and far-future (2071-2095) using the scenario RCP8.5.

For precipitation indices, an increase of consecutive dry days in EAS and a slight to moderate decrease in the northern parts of CAS during the mid-future compared to present values is observed. Consecutive wet days, very heavy precipitation events (R20mm), the maximum one-day precipitation, and very wet days (R95p) are projected to increase in most areas. All indices show a further intensification towards the end of the century over large parts of the domain. For temperature indices, the ensembles project a strong increase over the high mountain regions and southern parts for the consecutive summer days, the heat wave duration index, and the percentage of very hot days (TX90p). Accordingly, the number of consecutive frost days and the percentage of very cold days (TX10p) are projected to decrease. However, some discrepancies in the projected changes prevail among the different RCMs being part of the two CORDEX-domains and in specific landscapes like complex mountain or lake areas.

How to cite: Rai, P., Bangelesa, F., Abel, D., Ziegler, K., Huang, J., Schaffhauser, T., Disse, M., and Paeth, H.: Future projection of extreme precipitation and temperature indices in Central Asia using CORDEX-CORE, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15085, 2024.